Page 7 - Yucaipa Valley Water District - Board Workshop
P. 7
Workshop Memorandum No. 16-001 Page 3 of 18
Latest Seasonal Assessment - Since the previous outlook issu ed on November 19, drought
improvement or removal occurred across the cent ral/southern Great Plains, Mississippi Valley,
and parts of the western U.S. The drought coverage across the continental U.S. is at its lowest
since December 2010 and much of the existing drought is designated as long-term.
The drought outlook valid from December 17, 2015 through March 31, 2016 is based primarily
on the ongoing El Niño, the CPC January-March (JFM) precipitation and temperature outlooks,
precipitation forecasts during the remainder of December, recent precipitation anomalies, and
climatology.
El Niño and a wet time of year favor improvement or removal of drought across California by
the end of March 2016. The most likely area for removal exists across extreme northwest
California due to abnormal wetness during early to mid-December and a continued wet
pattern forecast during the remainder of the month. Effects from the multi-year California
drought such as low reservoir levels may continue beyond the outlook period. The predicted
longwave pattern during the remainder of December along with El Niño also favors
improvement or removal of existing drought across the desert Southwest and Great Basin.
Improvement or removal of drought across Oregon and southwest Idaho is based mostly on
the anomalous wetness during December, while persistence is more likely across northeast
Idaho and western Montana. Development is forecast by the end of March across the Plains
of eastern Montana due to increased chances of below-medi an precipitation and above-normal
temperatures during JFM.
Most areas of the continental U.S. east of the Rockies are drought-free. The lingering areas
of short-term drought across lower Michigan and Indiana are likely to be eliminated with a
wet pattern during the next two weeks. Although below-median precipitation is favored during
JFM across the Great Lakes region, drought is not expected to return by the end of March.
Yucaipa Valley Water District - January 12, 2016 - Page 7 of 279
Latest Seasonal Assessment - Since the previous outlook issu ed on November 19, drought
improvement or removal occurred across the cent ral/southern Great Plains, Mississippi Valley,
and parts of the western U.S. The drought coverage across the continental U.S. is at its lowest
since December 2010 and much of the existing drought is designated as long-term.
The drought outlook valid from December 17, 2015 through March 31, 2016 is based primarily
on the ongoing El Niño, the CPC January-March (JFM) precipitation and temperature outlooks,
precipitation forecasts during the remainder of December, recent precipitation anomalies, and
climatology.
El Niño and a wet time of year favor improvement or removal of drought across California by
the end of March 2016. The most likely area for removal exists across extreme northwest
California due to abnormal wetness during early to mid-December and a continued wet
pattern forecast during the remainder of the month. Effects from the multi-year California
drought such as low reservoir levels may continue beyond the outlook period. The predicted
longwave pattern during the remainder of December along with El Niño also favors
improvement or removal of existing drought across the desert Southwest and Great Basin.
Improvement or removal of drought across Oregon and southwest Idaho is based mostly on
the anomalous wetness during December, while persistence is more likely across northeast
Idaho and western Montana. Development is forecast by the end of March across the Plains
of eastern Montana due to increased chances of below-medi an precipitation and above-normal
temperatures during JFM.
Most areas of the continental U.S. east of the Rockies are drought-free. The lingering areas
of short-term drought across lower Michigan and Indiana are likely to be eliminated with a
wet pattern during the next two weeks. Although below-median precipitation is favored during
JFM across the Great Lakes region, drought is not expected to return by the end of March.
Yucaipa Valley Water District - January 12, 2016 - Page 7 of 279
