Page 74 - Yucaipa Valley Water District - Board Workshop
P. 74
Workshop Memorandum No. 16-006 Page 7 of 8
eastern tropical Pacific. Clouds and storms follow the warm water, pumping heat and moisture
high into the overlying atmosphere. These changes alter jet stream paths and affect storm tracks
all over the world.
This year's El Niño has caused the warm water layer that is normally piled up around Australia
and Indonesia to thin dramatically, while in the eastern tropical Pacific, the normally cool surface
waters are blanketed with a thick layer of warm water. This massive redistribution of heat causes
ocean temperatures to rise from the central Pacific to the Americas. It has sapped Southeast
Asia's rain in the process, reducing rainfall over Indonesia and contributing to the growth of
massive wildfires that have blanketed the region in choking smoke.
El Niño is also implicated in Indian heat waves caused by delayed monsoon rains, as well as
Pacific island sea level drops, widespread coral bleaching that is damaging coral reefs, droughts
in South Africa, flooding in South America and a record-breaking hurricane season in the eastern
tropical Pacific. Around the world, production of rice, wheat, coffee and other crops has been hit
hard by droughts and floods, leading to higher prices.
In the United States, many of El Niño's biggest impacts are expected in early 2016. Forecasters
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favor an El Niño-induced shift in weather
patterns to begin in the near future, ushering in several months of relatively cool and wet
conditions across the southern United States, and relatively warm and dry conditions over the
northern United States. The latest El Niño forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
While scientists still do not know precisely how the current El Niño will affect the United States,
the last large El Niño in 1997-98 was a wild ride for most of the nation. The "Great Ice Storm" of
January 1998 crippled northern New England and southeastern Canada, but overall, the northern
tier of the United States experienced long periods of mild weather and meager snowfall.
Meanwhile, across the southern United States, a steady convoy of storms slammed most of
California, moved east into the Southwest, dr enched Texas and -- pumped up by the warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico -- wreaked havoc along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Florida.
"In 2014, the current El Niño teased us -- wavering off and on," said Josh Willis, project scientist
for the Jason missions at JPL. "But in early 2015, atmospheric conditions changed, and El Niño
steadily expanded in the central and eastern Pacific. Although the sea surface height signal in
1997 was more intense and peaked in November of that year, in 2015, the area of high sea levels
is larger. This could mean we have not yet seen the peak of this El Niño."
During normal, non-El Niño conditions, the amount of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific
is so large that sea levels are about 20 inches (50 centimeters) higher in the western Pacific than
in the eastern Pacific. "You can see it in the latest Jason-2 image of the Pacific," said Willis. "The
8-inch [20-centimeter] drop in the west, coupled with the 10-inch [25-centimeter] rise in the east,
has completely wiped out the tilt in sea level we usually have along the equator."
The new Jason-2 image shows that the amount of extra-warm surface water from the current El
Niño (depicted in red and white shades) has continuously increased, especially in the eastern
Pacific within 10 degrees latitude north and south of the equator. In the western Pacific, the area
of low sea level (blue and purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red
areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage. In the white areas, the sea surface is between 6
and 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) above normal, while in the red areas, it is about 4 inches
Yucaipa Valley Water District - January 12, 2016 - Page 70 of 279
eastern tropical Pacific. Clouds and storms follow the warm water, pumping heat and moisture
high into the overlying atmosphere. These changes alter jet stream paths and affect storm tracks
all over the world.
This year's El Niño has caused the warm water layer that is normally piled up around Australia
and Indonesia to thin dramatically, while in the eastern tropical Pacific, the normally cool surface
waters are blanketed with a thick layer of warm water. This massive redistribution of heat causes
ocean temperatures to rise from the central Pacific to the Americas. It has sapped Southeast
Asia's rain in the process, reducing rainfall over Indonesia and contributing to the growth of
massive wildfires that have blanketed the region in choking smoke.
El Niño is also implicated in Indian heat waves caused by delayed monsoon rains, as well as
Pacific island sea level drops, widespread coral bleaching that is damaging coral reefs, droughts
in South Africa, flooding in South America and a record-breaking hurricane season in the eastern
tropical Pacific. Around the world, production of rice, wheat, coffee and other crops has been hit
hard by droughts and floods, leading to higher prices.
In the United States, many of El Niño's biggest impacts are expected in early 2016. Forecasters
at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration favor an El Niño-induced shift in weather
patterns to begin in the near future, ushering in several months of relatively cool and wet
conditions across the southern United States, and relatively warm and dry conditions over the
northern United States. The latest El Niño forecast from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is at:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
While scientists still do not know precisely how the current El Niño will affect the United States,
the last large El Niño in 1997-98 was a wild ride for most of the nation. The "Great Ice Storm" of
January 1998 crippled northern New England and southeastern Canada, but overall, the northern
tier of the United States experienced long periods of mild weather and meager snowfall.
Meanwhile, across the southern United States, a steady convoy of storms slammed most of
California, moved east into the Southwest, dr enched Texas and -- pumped up by the warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico -- wreaked havoc along the Gulf Coast, particularly in Florida.
"In 2014, the current El Niño teased us -- wavering off and on," said Josh Willis, project scientist
for the Jason missions at JPL. "But in early 2015, atmospheric conditions changed, and El Niño
steadily expanded in the central and eastern Pacific. Although the sea surface height signal in
1997 was more intense and peaked in November of that year, in 2015, the area of high sea levels
is larger. This could mean we have not yet seen the peak of this El Niño."
During normal, non-El Niño conditions, the amount of warm water in the western equatorial Pacific
is so large that sea levels are about 20 inches (50 centimeters) higher in the western Pacific than
in the eastern Pacific. "You can see it in the latest Jason-2 image of the Pacific," said Willis. "The
8-inch [20-centimeter] drop in the west, coupled with the 10-inch [25-centimeter] rise in the east,
has completely wiped out the tilt in sea level we usually have along the equator."
The new Jason-2 image shows that the amount of extra-warm surface water from the current El
Niño (depicted in red and white shades) has continuously increased, especially in the eastern
Pacific within 10 degrees latitude north and south of the equator. In the western Pacific, the area
of low sea level (blue and purple) has decreased somewhat from late October. The white and red
areas indicate unusual patterns of heat storage. In the white areas, the sea surface is between 6
and 10 inches (15 to 25 centimeters) above normal, while in the red areas, it is about 4 inches
Yucaipa Valley Water District - January 12, 2016 - Page 70 of 279
